Adult social care budgets are showing significant volatility and unpredictability as Council services and health services recover from the pandemic.
Adult Social Care spend for 2021/22 was £117,015m. The net budget for Adult Social Care will increase to £131.565m for 2023/24 and is expected to rise to £141.521m by 2026/27.
Social care charging reforms have been delayed by two years until October 2025. Funding for implementation will be maintained within Local Government to enable local authorities to address current adult social care pressures.
Financial support of £1.3bn in 2023-24 and £1.9bn in 2024-25 will be distributed to local authorities at the Local Government Finance Settlement through the Social Care Grant for adult and children’s social care.
As a reflection of the significant work being carried out in the Adult Social care sector, it is forecasted that that the commissioned services will overspend it’s budget this year. This reflects the significant work being carried out by the service in dealing with backlogs, with additional packages for both nursing/residential and homecare now being included in the forecast position.
We continue to work across the system partnership with colleagues in health to allocate resources to meet demand associated with hospital discharge.
Specific work has taken place to reduce historical and unsustainable support to the care market. This must be carefully managed to ensure the operation of an efficient and effective market for care and support. Providers are reporting significant cost pressures from the need to increase wages as well as increased fuel and food costs.
The position within adult social services remains highly volatile due to several factors, including the unprecedented pressures in homecare, uncertainty in residential care demand, workforce recruitment pressures in care and hospital-facing discharge pressures, etc.
Financial Pressures
The Council Business Plan 2020-25 (2023 Update) sets out the Council’s corporate priorities for the period and details the key actions that will be taken to support delivery of those priorities. Our primary focus, both for the next year and beyond, is to support and empower our communities through the cost of living crisis and for a continued strong and healthy recovery from the pandemic, for our residents, communities, businesses, partnerships and staff. We are, building on our learning and experiences whilst continuing to successfully deliver and develop those services vital to our residents and the area.
Since the pandemic, the council has faced increased pressures from wage rises, inflation and increased demand, leading to a more challenging financial picture overall. In addition to addressing the significant levels of inflation forecast in 2023-24 that will see costs rise even further, the budget which the Council needs to deliver services (its budget requirement) is forecast to increase by £40.0m (12.2%). The most significant areas of increased costs for 2023-24 include:
At time of setting next year’s budget, as at February 2023, the medium range scenario for future years indicates a gap between the Council’s expected funding streams and the Council’s expenditure. In order to address gaps there will be a continued focus on commercialism where possible, effective contract management and working with partners to secure value for money in delivering our strategic aims and priorities. We will be redesigning services where appropriate to ensure they remain modern and fit for purpose.